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10月7日公布的调查显示，日本制造业信心升至近五年高位，非制造业信心却明显下降。芯片需求、成本和家庭支出，如何让同一个经济体呈现两种感受？

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Japan’s factories and service businesses are looking at the same economy, but they are not feeling the same way. A Reuters survey released on October 7 found that confidence among large manufacturers rose to its highest level in nearly five years. At the same time, confidence among non-manufacturers fell sharply.

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日本的工厂和服务业面对同一个经济环境，感受却并不相同。10月7日公布的一项路透社调查发现，大型制造商的信心升至近五年来最高水平；与此同时，非制造业企业的信心却大幅下降。

The survey turns business opinions into an index. It subtracts the share of pessimistic answers from the share of optimistic ones. A positive number therefore means that more companies feel hopeful than worried. The manufacturing index rose from plus 21 in September to plus 22 in October. The non-manufacturing index moved in the opposite direction, falling from plus 29 to plus 23.

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这项调查把企业看法转化为一个指数。它用乐观回答所占比例减去悲观回答所占比例。因此，正数意味着感到乐观的企业多于感到担忧的企业。制造业指数从9月的正21升至10月的正22；非制造业指数则反向变化，从正29降至正23。

Strong demand for semiconductors helped explain the factory result. Confidence among precision machinery companies jumped nine points to plus 38. These firms include makers of equipment used in chip production. One manager said orders had stayed at one and a half times their normal level for four months. Metal products and steel also showed stronger results.

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强劲的半导体需求帮助解释了工厂一侧的结果。精密机械企业的信心跃升9点，达到正38。这些企业包括芯片生产设备制造商。一名经理表示，订单已连续四个月维持在正常水平的1.5倍。金属制品和钢铁行业也呈现更强的结果。

Conditions were less comfortable for businesses that depend more directly on daily spending. Food producers recorded the biggest drop, with their index falling 15 points to minus 40. Retail, information and communications, real estate and construction also became less positive. Companies pointed to higher material costs, interest rates, construction costs and weaker household spending.

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对于更加直接依赖日常消费的企业而言，情况没有那么轻松。食品生产商降幅最大，其指数下跌15点至负40。零售、信息通信、房地产和建筑业的态度也变得不那么积极。企业提到了材料成本、利率和建筑成本上升，以及家庭支出走弱。

Other recent evidence supports this mixed picture. Japan’s official quarterly Tankan survey, released on October 1, also showed stronger confidence among large manufacturers and weaker confidence among large non-manufacturers. A separate survey of the service sector showed that activity still grew in September, but more slowly than in August. This means weaker confidence does not necessarily mean that the sector is already shrinking.

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其他近期证据也支持这种喜忧参半的图景。日本10月1日发布的官方季度短观调查，同样显示大型制造商信心增强、大型非制造业企业信心减弱。另一项服务业调查显示，9月的行业活动仍在增长，但速度慢于8月。这意味着信心减弱并不一定表示该行业已经收缩。

The latest Reuters survey also has limits. It received answers from 215 of the 508 companies contacted between September 18 and October 2. The index measures how managers feel; it is not a direct count of production, sales or jobs. Changes in mood may point toward future conditions, but they do not guarantee what will happen.

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最新的路透社调查也有局限。调查在9月18日至10月2日联系了508家企业，并收到其中215家的回答。该指数衡量的是经理的感受，并不是对产量、销售额或就业人数的直接统计。情绪变化可能指向未来状况，却不能保证实际会发生什么。

The divide may continue. Manufacturers expected their index to reach plus 23 in three months, while non-manufacturers expected theirs to fall to plus 21. Some factory managers also warned that demand related to artificial intelligence could slow later. The survey therefore shows two sides of Japan’s economy: strong chip-related orders are supporting industry, while higher costs and careful household spending are placing pressure on many service businesses.

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这种分化可能持续。制造商预计三个月后指数将达到正23，非制造业企业则预计其指数降至正21。一些工厂经理还警告，与人工智能相关的需求以后可能放缓。因此，这项调查呈现出日本经济的两个侧面：强劲的芯片相关订单正在支撑工业，而较高成本和谨慎的家庭支出正给许多服务业企业带来压力。

新闻来源

• Reuters · Japan manufacturers’ mood hits near 5-year high, service-sector sentiment slumps
• Associated Press · Survey by Japan’s central bank shows business sentiments are up for sixth straight month
• Reuters · Japan service sector activity slows from 5-month high, PMI shows
• Yahoo!ファイナンス · 日銀短観、大企業製造業は6期連続改善し8年ぶり水準　先行きには不透明感

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