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10月6日公布的国际货币基金组织研究指出，同样的食品与能源涨价，对不同家庭的负担并不相同。为什么普遍压低价格，未必比直接帮助低收入家庭更有效？

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Two families can buy food at the same shop and feel the same price rise very differently. What matters is how much of their money goes to things they cannot easily give up. New research from the International Monetary Fund, or IMF, released on October 6, 2026, explains this difference and asks how governments can help.

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两个家庭可以在同一家商店买食物，却对同样的涨价有截然不同的感受。关键在于，他们有多少收入花在无法轻易放弃的东西上。国际货币基金组织（IMF）于2026年10月6日发布的新研究解释了这种差异，并探讨政府可以如何提供帮助。

Families with lower incomes spend a larger share of their money on food and energy. When these prices rise faster than others, their living costs grow more quickly. They also have fewer ways to change their spending. A family can delay buying something it wants, but it still needs meals and electricity. An average price figure may therefore hide very different experiences.

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低收入家庭把更大比例的钱用于食物和能源。当这些价格涨得比其他商品更快时，他们的生活成本也上升得更快。他们调整支出的办法也更少。一个家庭可以推迟购买想要的东西，却仍然需要吃饭和用电。因此，一个平均价格数字可能掩盖了截然不同的生活体验。

The problem can last beyond the first sharp increase. According to the IMF research, prices of basic goods often remain high compared with other goods. People’s expectations can change too. Reuters reports that expectations of future price rises remained above earlier levels even three years after a crisis began. This helps explain why the effects may continue long after the first shock.

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问题可能在第一轮急剧涨价后继续存在。根据IMF的研究，相比其他商品，基本生活品的价格常常仍居高位。人们的预期也可能改变。路透社报道称，即使危机开始三年后，人们对未来涨价的预期仍高于此前水平。这有助于解释，为什么第一轮冲击过去很久后，其影响还会延续。

Governments often respond by making food or fuel cheaper for everyone. The researchers studied government responses in 76 countries over three decades. These included cutting taxes and paying companies to keep prices down. Such measures can bring quick relief, but much of the money may reach people who need less help.

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政府常常通过让所有人的食物或燃料变得更便宜来应对。研究人员考察了76个国家三十年间的政府应对措施，其中包括减税以及向企业支付补贴以压低价格。这些措施能迅速减轻负担，但很多钱也可能流向不那么需要帮助的人。

One example comes from Europe’s energy crisis in 2022 and 2023. For each euro spent holding down electricity, gas and petrol prices, less than twenty cents reached the poorest fifth of households. A lower price was available widely, so the support was not mainly reaching the people with the smallest budgets.

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一个例子来自欧洲2022年和2023年的能源危机。每投入1欧元用于压低电力、天然气和汽油价格，不到20欧分惠及最贫困的五分之一家庭。因为较低价格普遍适用，这些支持并未主要到达预算最紧张的人群。

The IMF argues that giving money directly to poorer families is usually a better answer. This can help them pay necessary bills without making every purchase cheaper for everyone. EFE reports that the fund also stresses limits on public spending. Governments need to protect families while keeping enough money to deal with other problems. The aim is temporary help for those most affected, rather than permanent support for all buyers.

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IMF认为，直接给较贫困家庭发钱，通常是更好的办法。这可以帮助他们支付必要账单，而不必让每个人购买的每样东西都变得更便宜。埃菲社报道称，IMF也强调公共支出的限度。政府需要在保护家庭的同时，保留足够资金处理其他问题。目标是为受影响最严重的人提供临时帮助，而不是长期支持所有购买者。

There are limits to this approach. Some governments may find it difficult to deliver money quickly to the right people. In exceptional cases, wider support may still be needed. The IMF therefore recommends improving systems that support poorer families before a crisis arrives. The central question is not simply whether prices fall, but who actually receives the help.

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这种办法也有局限。一些政府可能难以迅速把钱发给真正需要的人。在特殊情况下，更广泛的支持仍可能有必要。因此，IMF建议在危机到来前完善支持较贫困家庭的体系。核心问题不只是价格是否下降，而是谁真正得到了帮助。

新闻来源

• IMF · Targeted Support, Not Subsidies, Can Best Protect People When Inflation Surges
• Reuters · Cost-of-living crises have lasting impact on inflation expectations, poverty, IMF says
• EFE · El FMI destaca las ayudas monetarias temporales para encarar la subida del coste de vida

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